Wolf-Peter Schill (DIW), Optimal supply chains and power sector benefit of green hydrogen

Green hydrogen can help to decarbonize parts of the transportation sector, but its power sector interactions are not well understood. It may contribute to integrating variable renewable energy sources if production is sufficiently flexible in time. Using an open-source co-optimization model of the power sector and four options for supplying hydrogen at German filling stations, we find a trade-off between energy efficiency and temporal flexibility: for lower shares of renewables and hydrogen, more energy-efficient and less flexible small-scale on-site electrolysis is optimal. For higher shares of renewables and/or hydrogen, more flexible but less energy-efficient large-scale hydrogen supply chains gain importance as they allow disentangling hydrogen production from demand via storage. Liquid hydrogen emerges as particularly beneficial, followed by liquid organic hydrogen carriers and gaseous hydrogen. Large-scale hydrogen supply chains can deliver substantial power sector benefits, mainly through reduced renewable surplus generation. Energy modelers and system planners should consider the distinct flexibility characteristics of hydrogen supply chains in more detail when assessing the role of green hydrogen in future energy transition scenarios.Stöckl, F., Schill, W.-P., Zerrahn, A. (2021): Optimal supply chains and power sector benefits of green hydrogen. Scientific Reports 11, 14191

Manuel VILLACENCIO (Deloitte Economic Advisory and PSL University), Assessing the role of hydrogen in Europe towards 2050 through models and scenarios

Achieving net-zero emissions in the next thirty years represents a formidable challenge for the European energy sector. Under the climate ambitions, even the hardest-to-abate sectors are now confronted with the challenge of reducing their emissions to near net-zero. The transition towards a decarbonized European energy system needs to mobilize a wide range of solutions. While with renewables, electrification and energy efficiency are obvious levers and well-known contributors to a successful decarbonization, it is uncertain whether they are sufficient. The role of hydrogen is expected to complete the set of solutions. The study relies on a detailed model-based analysis with a full representation of the European energy system and its transition from 2020 to 2050. The modelling architecture combines MIRET-EU and Integrate Europe, two state-of-the-art partial-equilibrium models of the European energy system, and the Hydrogen Pathway Exploration (HyPE) model to assess the potential of low-carbon hydrogen imports from neighboring regions. Two possible pathways requiring net-zero emissions in 2050 are assessed by representing different ambitions in terms of additional renewable targets. In both pathways hydrogen plays a major role in the decarbonization of the energy sector. European hydrogen demand in exceeds 30 Mt by 2030, which is a threefold of the current policy objective described in the EU hydrogen strategy. Demand for hydrogen ramps up substantially over the 2030s and 2040s and exceeds 100 million tons (Mt) by 2050 in both pathways. On the supply side, the production of hydrogen relies on a diverse production mix, comprising renewable and low-carbon technologies, with renewable hydrogen progressively outcompeting other technologies but with still a relevant role of low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas by 2050. Imports of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen fulfill non-negligible shares of the domestic demand.

H2 4EU study (2021), by DELOITTE (Sébastien Douguet, Dr. Johannes Trüby, Manuel Villacencio), IFPEN (Dr. Gondia Sokhna Seck, Dr. Emmanuel Hache and Jérôme Sabathier) and SINTEF (Dr. Gunhild A. Reigstad, Ove Wolfgang, Dr. Julian Straus and Dr. Jabir Ali Ouassou). Report available at: https://www.hydrogen4eu.com/