Abstract - Climate Matching in Migration

This lecture explores the concept of climate matching in migration, the tendency of migrants to select destinations with climates similar to those of their origins. Drawing first on recent work by Obolensky, Tabellini, and Taylor (2024), we examine how this phenomenon has shaped internal and international migration in the United States from the 19th century to the present. Results indicate that climate similarity predicts migration patterns, and that mismatches in climate reduce health and longevity outcomes across generations. Building on this modern evidence, we then turn to findings by Tabellini, Taylor, and Toti (2025), who extend the framework back into prehistory using ancient DNA and paleoclimate reconstructions. Their results show that even prehistoric human populations were more likely to migrate along climatically familiar corridors, and that this pattern facilitated the early spread of agriculture and technology. Together, these papers suggest that climate matching is not just a contemporary behavioral response, but a deeply rooted human tendency with long-term implications for economic development and cultural diffusion.

Biography

Marco Tabellini is an assistant professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy unit and is affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), and at IZA.

More information about Prof. Tabellini

Contact: across@uni.lu

An event supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) (PRIDE19/14302992) and (RESCOM/2024/LE/18786706)

Doctoral Lecture Series with Marco Tabellini (Harvard Business School)