Gratuit

40ème Séance du Séminaire PSL de Recherches en Economie de l’Energie

Informations sur l'événement

Partager cet événement

Date et heure

Adresse

Adresse

Université Paris-Dauphine

Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny

75016 Paris

France

Afficher la carte

Description de l'événement

Description

Le marché pétrolier entre nouvelles forces concurrentielles et contrainte de la transition bas carbone

David McGLADE, WEO senior analyst, International Energy Agency, and former researcher in the University College of London (Institute of Sustainable Resources)

« Disentangling the risks of stranded assets in the energy system and the oil & gas sector»

Achieving the climate goals contained in the Paris Agreement represents a stark challenge for many traditional energy industries. Fossil fuel consumption would be curtailed while low- and zero-carbon energy sources would flourish, implying a major reallocation of existing capital flows in the global energy system. Are incumbent fossil fuel industries at risk of severe losses under such a transition, with assets left stranded by falling demand and prices, or can a low-carbon economy be achieved smoothly with losses kept to a minimum? This talk will explore these issues, including identifying where risks are most prevalent, the ongoing stranded asset debate, and the impacts of stop-and-go cycles of policy volatility on the fossil fuel industry.

Dawud ANSARI, Research Associate, DIW (German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin)

« OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the Shale Revolution: Insights from Equilibrium Modelling and Oil Politics »

Why did OPEC not cut oil production in the wake of 2014’s price fall? This study aims at aiding the mostly qualitative discussion with quantitative evidence from computing quarterly partial market equilibria Q4 2011 – Q4 2015 under present short-term profit maximisation and different competition setups. Although the model performs reasonably well in explaining pre-2014 prices, all setups fail to capture low prices, which fall even beyond perfect competition outcomes. This result is robust with respect to large variations in cost parameters. Rejecting present short-term profit maximisation, as well as a qualitative discussion of Saudi Arabian politics and the shale oil revolution, lead to the conclusion that the price drop of 2014-16 was most plausibly the result of an attempt to defend market shares and to test for shale oil resilience, besides being fuelled by other factors such as rising competitiveness of alternative technologies. Although shale oil might have increased competition permanently (as supported by model results), the agreement of December 2016 should not be misunderstood as an OPEC defeat.

Paper published in Energy Policy, 2017, 111, p. 166-178

Le séminaire se tiendra en anglais

Partager avec les amis

Date et heure

Adresse

Université Paris-Dauphine

Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny

75016 Paris

France

Afficher la carte

Sauvegarder cet événement

Événement sauvegardé